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Comments on How to estimate time of completion while developing an electronic product?

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How to estimate time of completion while developing an electronic product?

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I don't know whether this question is on-topic or not but answering this helps a lot of future electronics entrepreneurs like me understand how the product design and development time estimation takes place.

Suppose a customer approaches me and gives a project with his specifications(let us say a DC-DC converter or a Home automation System etc.). Now how should I estimate the design time, development time, test/debugging time and give him a report that by this time approximately I can handover the project?

As far as I know there are two types of products-

  1. The product which is already present in the market and customer comes to me for price optimization or some different specifications.
  2. A complete new project never been in the market.

So time varies for each one above, how to estimate time and what are all the factors to consider?

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General comments (1 comment)
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First of all, it depends on how much work the customer has done in advance. Do they have a proper spec? Do they at least have a bunch of key requirements? Or is it just "out there" and you must drag the spec out of the customer through interrogation and mind reading?

If there isn't a proper spec, you should probably add a couple of weeks right there. You have to make the spec yourself, then ping pong that with the customer back and forth. Also, customers who don't quite know what they want tend to come up with requirements later, when you are already half-ways through the project. Each time that happens, it will delay the project and cause extra work.

Then you'll start to consider design and implementation time. Here you need experience from similar work but also from the market. To take the DC/DC scenario for example, it shouldn't be that much work unless there are specialized requirements. Find out the most exotic or tough requirement and base the time estimate on that one. High currents? Tough EMC requirements? Is some peculiar switch regulator topology needed? Or whatever you deem hardest to fulfil or most likely to cause hiccups. Check how much in the way of reference designs you can get from the silicon vendor and how much you think that design needs to be tweaked.

Then consider one of the biggest pitfalls: some unexpected technical problem might (will) appear at some point in the project. If (when) that happens, you don't want to end up clawing against an unresponsive or unwilling tech support wall. It might put the whole project to halt and delay it significantly.

The hardened, cynical project manager applies Murphy's Law and assumes that something like that will happen in this project as well and just toss in 2 or so weeks as "hassle margin". The larger the project, the more such time is needed.

But here, past experience market knowledge is valuable. Ok so there's a TI simple switcher that fulfils everything in the spec, it is cheap and there's a reference design. At a glance it seems like an obvious choice. But then you should recall "oh wait, my company isn't Microsoft-sized, so TI will give me the middle finger if I happen to need support". On the other hand you know that LT/Analog has excellent support, but more expensive parts. And suddenly you find yourself in a BOM cost vs time to market situation.

That's where you need to feel out/ask the EE who will do the design how confident they are in pulling off the project - how much switch regulator design have they done in the past? If it isn't a veteran designer, then they are more likely to need tech support. But if they are experienced, you might pick the company with cheap parts but non-existent support.

So lets assume you come up with something like 1 week spec/requirements gathering, 1 week design & component choices, 1 week PCB CAD, then prototype order, then 1 week test. The prototype order time is a black hole - how fast can you get PCBs, are you willing to pay extra for faster delivery, can you solder this yourself, if not - then how swift is your assembly contractor etc etc. Then once the prototype arrives, it almost never 100% correct. You'll find something that needs improving, there will most likely be at least one more board spin. Take this in account.

And then finally regulatory stuff and laws. Where in the world will it be sold? Does this need 3rd party EMC testing? EU regulations? FCC? UL? Local EMC requirements in South-East Asia? Do we need to spew RoHS paperwork all over the technical file? These can be major time and money sinks! So get them right from the start and make it clear with the customer who will pay for any testing. And involve a test house early on and book a time. Don't contact them at the point when the product is supposedly finished & working, they might have a full schedule and you might have to wait many weeks.

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General comments (4 comments)
General comments
coquelicot‭ wrote over 3 years ago · edited over 3 years ago

+1 for this answer, the best one in that it entirely focuses on time, while the other answers contain (good) things out of topics. Yours contains also practical advices. All the answers (except mine) describe in fact how to predict and manage the product development stages, what I summarized too quickly as "to detail the tasks" in my answer. Yes, of course, this is very important and is certainly of the greatest help for the OP. (continued)

coquelicot‭ wrote over 3 years ago · edited over 3 years ago

But when it comes to how evaluate the task "per se", all the answers invoke "experience", or "ask someone with experience". This is often not practical, especially for new entrepreneurs. This is where the rule I've given in my answer, and that I've statistically verified on me and others, could be useful. Notice It also includes Murphy's laws, and that's remarkable.

Lundin‭ wrote over 3 years ago

@coquelicot Well, this time estimate has to be done by someone with domain experience, ideally an engineer with practical experience. I think all answers posted here come to that same conclusion.

coquelicot‭ wrote over 3 years ago

@Lundin. I fully agree with you : time estimate HAS to be done by someone with domain experience (this is also an obvious consequence of my "rule 2"). But you know, so many things have to be done and are not, or are too hard to be.